摩根资管：2025年投资展望-走出周期性风暴，走进政策迷雾

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but it highlights a shift towards normalization in economic growth and market conditions, suggesting a cautious yet opportunistic outlook for investors [1][2] Core Views - The US economy is transitioning from a period of cyclical challenges to a more normalized growth trajectory, with real GDP expected to expand at 2.3% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025 [2][8] - Consumer spending remains the primary driver of economic growth, contributing 78% of real GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2024, though its contribution is expected to moderate as pent-up savings and debt tailwinds fade [2][3] - Interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as residential investment and manufacturing, face challenges but may stabilize with potential rate cuts in 2025 [4] - Business investment is supported by strong corporate balance sheets and fiscal policies like the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act, with tech companies leading in AI-driven investments [5] Economy and Policy - The labor market remains healthy, with unemployment expected to stay close to 4%, though job growth may stabilize at 100,000 to 150,000 monthly due to moderated immigration [8] - Policy uncertainty looms with potential tax cuts, higher tariffs, reduced immigration, and deregulation under a Republican administration, which could impact inflation, labor markets, and GDP growth [8] - Tariffs proposed by the incoming administration, including a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, could raise consumer prices by 1.4% to 5.1%, impacting disposable income and demand [8] Fixed Income and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has initiated an easing cycle, cutting rates by 75bps to 4.50%-4.75%, with further cuts expected through 2025 to support economic growth without reigniting inflation [10][11] - Long-term interest rates are expected to stabilize between 3.75%-4.25% in a soft landing scenario, with the 10-year Treasury yield biased modestly lower from current levels [17] - Investors are advised to extend duration out of cash and embrace credit for yield, particularly in high-quality securitized markets and corporate credit [17] Equity Markets - US equities have rallied around 60% over the past two years, driven by economic resilience, Fed easing, and AI advancements, with broader market leadership emerging beyond the "Magnificent 7" [17][20] - Earnings growth is expected to accelerate from 0% in 2023 to 9% in 2024 and 15% in 2025, with a shift towards more broad-based growth across sectors [19][20] - Sectors like industrials, energy, and materials are expected to recover as capital-intensive expenditures resume, while financials benefit from a more favorable yield curve and deregulation [25] International Equities - International equities are expected to benefit from multiple expansion and better earnings growth, though risks include disappointing growth in China, a strong dollar, and tariff impacts [34] - Japan, India, and Taiwan are highlighted for their structural growth stories, with Japan benefiting from reflation and corporate governance reforms, while India and Taiwan capitalize on tech and services growth [28][30] - Europe faces cyclical challenges but offers opportunities in select companies with healthy buybacks and dividend yields [28] Alternatives and Real Estate - Private equity exit activity is improving, with exit values up 51% year-over-year through 3Q24, though valuations may come under pressure as lower quality deals come to market [38][39] - Commercial real estate valuations are stabilizing, with industrials and multifamily sectors looking attractive, while office remains challenged [40][41] - Private credit defaults are trending higher but remain low, with investors continuing to find enhanced yields in this asset class [44] Asset Allocation - The traditional "60/40" portfolio is evolving, with alternatives playing a key role in portfolio construction, particularly for income, diversification, and risk management [50][52] - Investors are advised to balance exposure to growth and value, with a focus on long-term trends and structural tailwinds, while maintaining diversification across asset classes [50][52]