瑞银：2025年展望-咆哮的 20 年代：下一阶段

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on equities, particularly in the US, with the S&P 500 expected to reach 6,600 by the end of 2025, representing a 10% price return from current levels [19][99] - Asia ex-Japan is also rated as attractive, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index expected to return about 15% by the end of 2025 [111] - European equities are expected to underperform US equities, with total returns of around 6% by the end of 2025 [118] Core Investment Themes - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as one of the most important investment opportunities of the decade, with companies across the AI value chain expected to generate over USD 1.1 trillion in revenue by 2027 [121] - The power and resources sector is set for transformational growth, with an estimated USD 3 trillion annually required by 2030 to meet rising electricity demand [134] - Gold is expected to build on its gains in 2025, with prices potentially reaching new highs due to lower interest rates, geopolitical risks, and strong dollar-diversification trends [154] Economic Outlook - US economic growth is expected to slow slightly but remain close to 2% in 2025, supported by healthy consumption, loose fiscal policy, and lower interest rates [35][42] - China's growth is forecast to decelerate from 4.8% in 2024 to 4.0% in 2025, with tariff headwinds posing risks [47][48] - Europe's economic growth is expected to be uneven and subdued, yet stronger than in 2024, with modest growth of around 1% in Germany, France, and Italy [53][55] Market Implications - US equities are expected to benefit from falling interest rates, solid economic growth, and AI advancements, with the S&P 500 projected to reach 6,600 by the end of 2025 [64] - International markets, particularly in Europe and China, could face headwinds from tariffs, though potential stimulus measures in China may mitigate some of the impact [65] - US Treasury yields are expected to fall in the year ahead, with investors advised to lock in returns at currently elevated yield levels [66] Strategic Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to position for lower interest rates by shifting cash into investment-grade bonds, diversified fixed income strategies, and equity income strategies [76][77] - Diversification with alternatives, including private equity, private debt, and private real estate, is recommended to enhance portfolio growth and diversification [237][238] - Sustainable investing strategies are highlighted as offering similar risk and return characteristics to traditional investments, with opportunities across equities, bonds, and private markets [261][263] Commodities and Real Estate - Gold is expected to remain an effective hedge against political concerns, with a target price of USD 2,900/oz by the end of 2025 [68][154] - Copper and other transition metals are expected to see higher prices due to increased demand from electrification and renewable energy projects [160] - Global residential and commercial real estate investments are expected to perform well, with opportunities in logistics, data centers, and multifamily housing [165][168]