造纸轻工行业周报：关注造纸行业格局改善，提价落地；家居以旧换新提振需求

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the paper and home furnishing industries, highlighting potential recovery and growth opportunities [1][8]. Core Insights - The paper industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics due to the shutdown of Chenming Paper, leading to price stabilization and potential long-term optimization of the industry structure [1][8]. - The home furnishing sector is benefiting from supportive real estate policies and a "replace old with new" initiative, which is expected to stimulate sales, particularly among leading companies [1][9]. - Overall, consumer confidence is gradually recovering, and the product structure is continuing to upgrade, with companies that have strong supply chain advantages and diverse channel strategies likely to gain market share [1][14]. Summary by Sections Paper Industry - Chenming Paper's shutdown has led to a significant reduction in production capacity, with 7.03 million tons offline, representing 71.7% of total capacity. This is expected to improve industry supply-demand conditions [1][8]. - Prices for various paper products, including cultural paper and white cardboard, have started to rise, with price increases of 300 and 200 RMB per ton announced, respectively [1][8]. - Recommended companies in the paper sector include Sun Paper, BoHui Paper, and Nine Dragons Paper, which have strong management and cost advantages [1][8]. Home Furnishing Industry - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to improve housing sales and construction, with October showing a decline in new housing starts narrowing to 25.7% [1][9]. - The "replace old with new" initiative has led to significant sales boosts, with over 630 million units of home improvement products sold, generating 19 billion RMB in sales [1][12]. - Key companies to watch in the home furnishing sector include Sophia, Oppein, and Kuka Home, which are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [1][14]. Light Industry Consumption - There is an anticipated marginal recovery in consumer spending, with companies like Baiya, Dengkang Oral Care, Bull Group, and Morning Glory expected to continue gaining market share due to their strong supply chain and diverse product offerings [1][14]. Export Dynamics - The report highlights potential disruptions from tariffs, particularly for products like PVC flooring and electric beds, with companies that have established overseas production bases likely to benefit [1][19]. - Specific companies mentioned include Tianzhen, Yongyi, and Jiangxin Home, which are positioned to enhance their market share through overseas capacity expansion [1][19].