石油化工行业周报：油价下跌周期下的石油石化指数简要复盘

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry [3]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the historical performance of the oil and petrochemical index during periods of declining oil prices, suggesting that the oil service sector may perform well in the early stages of price declines, while refining and downstream sectors are expected to recover better in the later stages [3][6]. - It highlights that the oil price has shown a downward trend since its peak in March 2022, with expectations of further declines due to increased non-OPEC production [6]. - The report emphasizes that the oil and petrochemical sector typically experiences downward expectations during oil price declines, affecting upstream product sales and midstream inventory values, which in turn impacts current profits [6][22]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of November 22, Brent crude oil futures closed at $75.17 per barrel, a 5.81% increase from the previous week, while NYMEX futures rose by 6.30% to $71.24 per barrel [3][29]. - The report notes that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased to 430 million barrels, up by 545,000 barrels from the previous week, and are 4% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [3][31]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased by 1 to 583, down 39 year-on-year, indicating a potential tightening in supply [3][43]. Refining Sector - The report indicates that the Singapore refining margin fell to $9.85 per barrel, a decrease of $1.04 from the previous week, while the gasoline-WTI spread increased to $15.19 per barrel [3][29]. - It suggests that refining profitability may improve as oil prices stabilize, with expectations of gradual recovery in refining product margins as economic conditions improve [3][22]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has declined, with the average price in East China dropping to 4,772 RMB per ton, a decrease of 1.06% [3][22]. - The report notes that the overall performance of the polyester industry is currently average, but there are signs of improvement in demand as the industry enters the peak season [3][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to expected improvements in refining margins and favorable tax reforms [3][22]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in the polyester sector, particularly for companies like Tongkun Co., as demand is expected to improve [3][22]. - The report suggests that upstream oil companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation may see enhanced performance due to rising production and operational quality [3][22].