中银证券：中银晨会聚焦-20241125

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the stock market, suggesting a preference for equities over commodities, bonds, and cash in the asset allocation hierarchy [2][5] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy adjustments to support growth in 2025 [5][7] Economic Data - In October, national public budget revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year, while expenditure rose by 10.4% year-on-year [3] - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote the healthy development of the platform economy and stabilize foreign trade growth [3] Market Performance - The A-share market experienced adjustments influenced by external factors, with the CSI 300 index declining by 2.6% [4] - Key commodities such as coking coal and iron ore saw price increases of 2.68% and 3.75%, respectively, during the same period [4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation is stocks > commodities > bonds > cash, reflecting a strategic approach to navigating the current economic landscape [5] - The report anticipates that fixed asset investment will remain a crucial driver for stable growth in 2025, supported by local government debt issuance [5] Market Trends - The report notes a short-term market pressure but maintains a medium-term upward trend, driven by improving domestic demand indicators and government policy support [7][8] - The report indicates a shift in market sentiment, with defensive sectors like utilities and basic chemicals showing relative resilience amid broader market declines [8]