策略周报：市场情绪延续降温，短期适度防守

Group 1 - The report indicates that recent market sentiment has cooled significantly, leading to a decrease in the winning rate for investments, as the rotation of market themes has accelerated and narrowed, resulting in weakened profit-making effects [1][13][15] - External events have increased market risk aversion, including escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and deteriorating relations on the Korean Peninsula, which have contributed to a rise in safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold [1][15][16] - Current policy measures are primarily focused on debt management and real estate, with a lack of new policies to stimulate domestic demand, leading to a stagnation in A-share valuations and a need for further policy support or fundamental recovery to drive market expectations [1][15][16] Group 2 - A-share market activity has decreased, with average daily trading volume dropping to 17,064 billion yuan, a reduction of 4,755 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating a further decline in market vibrancy [16][31] - The report highlights that the valuation percentiles of major A-share indices have generally declined, with the Shenzhen Component Index experiencing a relatively larger drop [19][20] - The report notes that the risk premium for A-shares has stabilized but remains below one standard deviation, while the equity-bond yield ratio has improved, indicating a potential shift in investment dynamics [20][21][26] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming economic data releases, particularly the November PMI, as the market is currently in a policy vacuum, and improvements in consumer and endogenous momentum could boost market sentiment [35] - The industry rotation index remains low, suggesting limited opportunities in the market, with a notable decline in profit-making effects following recent market downturns [32][35] - The report suggests a defensive stance in the short term, recommending a reduction in positions until new policy catalysts emerge [15][16][35]