国防军工行业周报（2024年第48周）：逻辑真空短期调整，基本面确定长期上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [1]. Core Insights - The defense industry is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment due to a temporary vacuum in logic related to industry orders and market sentiment, but the long-term demand and recovery are expected to remain strong [2][3]. - The report highlights significant fluctuations in stock performance within the defense sector, with notable gains in specific stocks such as Sichuan Jiuzhou (up 60.99%) and Rongfa Nuclear Power (up 32.15%) [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing attention to the defense sector, particularly focusing on two categories of core stocks: elastic varieties and value varieties [2][3]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 2.78%, while the CSI Military Leader Index decreased by 2.55%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.91% [1][5]. - The report notes that the defense sector's decline ranked 25th among 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors [5]. - The report identifies the top five performing stocks in the defense sector, with Sichuan Jiuzhou leading at a 60.99% increase, while the bottom five included China Satellite Communications with a -9.34% decrease [1][12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Defense Sector is 70.95, indicating it is in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 58.04% since January 2014 [13]. - The report indicates that the aerospace and aviation equipment sectors are currently at relatively high PE valuations compared to historical data [13]. Foreign Investment Trends - As of August 16, foreign ownership in the defense sector remains stable at 2.56%, with a long-term upward trend in foreign investment [21][24]. - The report lists the top five stocks with the most significant changes in foreign ownership, highlighting a positive trend for companies like Aerospace Science and Technology [21][26]. Key Investment Themes - The report suggests focusing on high-end combat capabilities and new types of combat power, including high-temperature casting alloys and low-orbit satellites, which are expected to see accelerated development [2][3]. - Specific stocks to watch include Aviation Industry Corporation of China, Aerospace Power, and other key players in the defense sector [2][3].