化工行业行业周报：化工品表现偏弱，建议关注结构性机会

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [6] Core Views - Geopolitical tensions have led to a rebound in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude prices rising by 5.81% and 6.30% respectively as of November 22 [2] - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 to 182 and 154 million barrels per day, respectively [2] - The chemical industry's valuation is at a relatively low level since 2014, presenting long-term investment opportunities [4] Oil Market - Brent and WTI crude prices reached $75.17/barrel and $71.24/barrel, respectively, as of November 22, with weekly average prices increasing by 2.56% and 2.45% [2][55] - US refinery utilization rate was 90.2% for the week ending November 15, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous week [2] - US commercial crude oil inventories stood at 430.29 million barrels, an increase of 550,000 barrels, indicating seasonal stockpiling [2] Inventory Conversion - Crude oil inventory conversion losses averaged -227 yuan/ton this week, with cumulative losses of -27 yuan/ton year-to-date [3] - Propane inventory conversion losses averaged -101 yuan/ton this week, with cumulative losses of -20 yuan/ton year-to-date [3] Price Performance - Out of 170 tracked chemical products, 43 (25.3%) saw price increases, 77 (45.3%) decreased, and 50 (29.4%) remained flat [3] - Top price gainers included ammonium chloride (wet, Jiangsu Huachang), WTI crude, natural rubber (Shanghai Futures Exchange), and Brent crude [3] - Top price decliners included liquid chlorine (Shandong), dichloromethane, and octanol (East China) [65] Spread Performance - Out of 130 tracked chemical product spreads, 37 (28.5%) increased, 82 (63.1%) decreased, and 11 (8.5%) remained flat [3] - Top spread gainers included maleic anhydride (butane), vinyl acetate (calcium carbide), and DOP (ortho-xylene) [72] - Top spread decliners included polypropylene (methanol), phthalic anhydride (ortho-xylene), and propylene (naphtha) [77] Valuation and Profitability - As of November 22, the PE (TTM) for petrochemicals and basic chemicals stood at 17.2x and 23.4x, respectively, with premiums of 9.1% and -17.2% compared to historical averages since 2014 [4] - The chemical industry's valuation is at a relatively low level since 2014, presenting long-term investment opportunities [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with resilient performance and valuation elasticity in the short term, and structural growth opportunities in the medium term [4] - Recommended companies include Baofeng Energy (600989.SH), Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ), Sailun Tire (601058.SH), and Sentury Tire (002984.SZ) [85] - Resource-based companies with capacity expansion potential, such as Asia Potash (000893.SZ) and Guanghui Energy (600256.SH), are also recommended [85]