2025年宏观经济展望：在特朗普2.0的不确定性中寻找确定性

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic uncertainty increases significantly with Trump's potential re-election, particularly due to his tariff policies[2] - The US may impose tariffs on 1/4 to 1/2 of China's exports to the US, potentially impacting China's GDP by 0.3-0.6 percentage points[2] China's Economic Policy - China's fiscal deficit ratio is expected to rise to 3.5%-4.0% in 2025, with new special bond issuance increasing by 300-600 billion yuan[2] - Monetary policy will remain accommodative, with 20-30 basis points of rate cuts and 50-100 basis points of reserve requirement ratio cuts expected in 2025[2] - Real estate policies will continue to be upgraded, with at least 800 billion yuan allocated for land acquisition and storage support[2] Domestic Demand and Inflation - China's domestic demand is expected to improve significantly in 2025, with investment and consumption contributing 0.9 percentage points more to GDP than in 2024[2] - Inflation is expected to rise moderately, with CPI inflation projected to increase to 0.8% in 2025, helping nominal GDP growth rise by 0.5 percentage points[21] US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to achieve a soft landing, with GDP growth slowing from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025[13] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates six times by 25 basis points each, bringing the policy rate down to 3.0% by the end of 2025[13] Trade and Tariffs - China's export growth is expected to slow to 1.0% in 2025 due to potential tariff wars and a global economic slowdown[51] - Net exports are projected to contribute negatively to GDP, with a shift from +1.2 percentage points in 2024 to -0.2 percentage points in 2025[20] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate investment is expected to improve, with the decline narrowing to -5.0% in 2025 from -10.5% in 2024[33] - Infrastructure investment is projected to rise to 5.0% in 2025, supported by government policies and debt resolution measures[31] Consumer and Retail - Retail sales growth is expected to accelerate to 5.0% in 2025, driven by policy support and improvements in the labor market[43] - Consumer confidence remains weak, with urban disposable income growth continuing to decline, potentially impacting consumption[41] Inflation and Commodity Prices - Inflation recovery is slower than expected, with PPI remaining negative due to strong industrial production and falling oil prices[36] - Commodity prices, including crude oil and iron ore, are expected to continue declining in 2025, while natural gas prices may rebound[67] Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, slower-than-expected inflation recovery, and uncertainties surrounding US-China tariff wars[3] - The US faces risks of economic recession if rate cuts are too slow, or reflation if rate cuts are too fast under Trump's policies[3]