房地产行业：央国企引领专题-稳健经营优势凸显，助力央国企穿越周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [8]. Core Insights - The overall industry is bottoming out, with continuous policy support. As of October 2024, the national commodity housing sales area reached 779 million square meters, with a sales amount of 7.69 trillion yuan, representing 84.18% and 79.10% of the same period last year, respectively. The cumulative real estate development investment was 8.63 trillion yuan, at 89.98% of last year's level. Both sales and investment are stabilizing [6][14]. - The number of central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) among leading real estate companies is increasing. In 2023, 15 out of the top 30 real estate companies by equity sales were central SOEs, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.30%, outperforming the overall top 30 companies, which saw a decline of 14.72% [7][55]. - The report highlights a trend of increasing industry concentration, with central SOEs expected to enhance their market position as the industry develops further. The report suggests that the valuations of leading real estate companies are likely to improve due to increasing policy support [9][171]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commodity housing was 779 million square meters, and the sales amount was 7.69 trillion yuan, which are 84.18% and 79.10% of the same period last year, respectively. The cumulative real estate development investment was 8.63 trillion yuan, at 89.98% of last year's level [6][14]. - The report indicates that the sales and investment levels are stabilizing, with policies introduced since September 2024 aimed at supporting the industry [23]. Central SOEs Performance - In 2023, 15 out of the top 30 real estate companies by equity sales were central SOEs, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.30%, significantly outperforming the overall top 30 companies, which experienced a decline of 14.72% [7][55]. - The report notes that central SOEs are increasingly dominating the top rankings, with 4 out of the top 5 companies being central SOEs in 2023 [55]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on central SOEs such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development, while also suggesting attention to other central SOEs like China Resources Land and Yuexiu Property [9][171]. - The report emphasizes that central SOEs possess advantages such as strong credit backgrounds, stable operational styles, and relatively low financing costs, which position them favorably in the current market environment [9][171].