家电行业动态跟踪：政策与大促共振，内销景气确认

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the home appliance industry [5] Core Views - Policy subsidies and platform promotions have significantly boosted home appliance consumption, with a 26.6% YoY increase in total sales during the 2024 Double 11 shopping festival [2] - Home appliance sales reached 193 billion yuan during Double 11, accounting for 16.3% of total sales, with a 26.5% YoY growth [2] - Domestic retail sales of home appliances in October 2024 surged by 39.20% YoY to 99.29 billion yuan, indicating a significant improvement in domestic demand [2] - Air conditioner exports maintained strong growth, with a 39.80% YoY increase in September 2024, while refrigerator and washing machine exports saw slower growth [2] - Real estate market signals are stabilizing, with a 3.41% YoY increase in first-tier city home sales in October 2024, potentially driving future demand for home appliances [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on white goods leaders benefiting from domestic and export improvements, such as Midea Group (000333.SZ) and Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) [3] - Consider kitchen appliance leaders like Robam Appliances (002508.SZ), which may benefit from industry optimization and real estate market stabilization [3] - Pay attention to cleaning appliance companies like Roborock (688169.SH), which are expanding channels and launching new products [3] Core Portfolio Performance (as of 2024.11.13) - Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) showed a 46.49% YTD increase and a 30.82% relative return [4] - Midea Group (000333.SZ) had a 39.94% YTD increase and a 24.27% relative return [4] - Robam Appliances (002508.SZ) and Roborock (688169.SH) experienced slight declines in monthly performance but maintained positive YTD growth [4] Domestic Demand Analysis - Real estate market policies are gradually taking effect, with a 21.4% YoY increase in completed home sales area from January to October 2024 [26] - The "old-for-new" policy and Double 11 promotions significantly boosted home appliance sales, with a 26.5% YoY increase in home appliance sales during the shopping festival [35] Export Performance - From January to October 2024, home appliance exports reached 3.721 billion units, a 22.2% YoY increase, with export value rising 14.5% YoY to $83.749 billion [41] - Air conditioner exports grew by 39.80% YoY in September 2024, while refrigerator and washing machine exports saw slower growth [46] Profitability and Valuation - The home appliance industry achieved a 4.3% YoY increase in revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, with a 5.41% YoY increase in net profit [53] - The industry's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was 15.80x as of October 25, 2024, below the historical average of 17.76x [72] Industry Beta and Market Performance - The home appliance industry's beta relative to the Shanghai Composite Index was slightly below 1.00, indicating similar volatility to the broader market [78]