2024年世界能源转型展望（英）

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the urgent need for a course correction in the global energy transition to meet the 1.5°C climate goal, indicating a critical investment environment for renewable energy and efficiency improvements [9][12]. Core Insights - The global energy transition is currently off track, with fossil fuels still dominating the energy mix in major economies, making it increasingly unlikely to meet the Paris Agreement goals [40][41]. - Significant investments are required to triple renewable power capacity to over 11,000 gigawatts by 2030, necessitating a total of USD 31.5 trillion in investments from 2024 to 2030 [12][72]. - The report highlights the need for international collaboration to ensure a just and equitable energy transition, particularly in the global South, where investment is critically needed [14][20]. Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Achieving the 1.5°C Scenario and Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 - The report outlines a framework for aligning energy and climate strategies, emphasizing the need for systemic transformation to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by mid-century [6][7]. - It identifies a significant gap between high-level political commitments and actual national plans, with current targets set to deliver only half of the required growth in renewable power by 2030 [41][42]. Chapter 2: Progress Towards 2030 Milestones - The report notes that while renewable power capacity grew by 473 gigawatts in 2023, deployment must increase to an average of 1,044 gigawatts annually to meet the tripling target by 2030 [53][54]. - It stresses the importance of expanding renewable energy beyond leading markets and scaling up technologies other than solar PV [54]. Chapter 3: Overcoming Key Barriers - Structural and systemic barriers must be addressed to facilitate the energy transition, including modernizing infrastructure and establishing regulatory frameworks suitable for renewable energy [10][60]. - The report highlights the need for effective energy planning to attract private capital and reduce investment risks [18][76]. Chapter 4: Overcoming Finance and Investment Barriers - Global investments in renewable capacity reached USD 570 billion in 2023, but remain concentrated in a few countries, necessitating a dramatic increase in financing to meet energy transition goals [71][72]. - Annual investments must rise from USD 1.29 trillion in 2023 to USD 4.5 trillion each year from 2024 to 2030 to meet the renewable energy and efficiency goals [72][73]. Chapter 5: Furthering Economic and Social Development - The report emphasizes the socio-economic impacts of the energy transition, advocating for international collaboration to enhance welfare outcomes [20][43]. - It calls for a focus on public financing and policy measures to de-risk investments in high-risk environments, particularly in developing countries [75][77].