京东健康：24Q3收入稳步增长，规模效应持续扩大

Investment Rating - Maintain OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of HK$41.49 [1][2] - Current price is HK$27.30, indicating a significant upside potential [2] Core Views - Steady revenue growth in 24Q3 with revenue reaching CNY 13.30 billion (+14.8%) and net profit of CNY 930 million (+212.2%) [7] - Adjusted net profit margin improved to 10.0% (+1.8 percentage points) in 24Q3 [7] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue grew by 7.6% to CNY 41.65 billion, with net profit increasing by 59.4% to CNY 2.97 billion [8] - The company is expanding its online medical insurance settlement services, covering 12 cities and connecting with 2,000 designated retail pharmacies [8] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E and 2025E is projected to be CNY 57.40 billion and CNY 64.00 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2% and 11.5% respectively [9] - Adjusted net profit for 2024E and 2025E is expected to be CNY 4.34 billion and CNY 4.71 billion, with growth rates of 5.0% and 8.6% respectively [9] - Gross profit margin is forecasted to increase from 22.2% in 2023A to 24.0% in 2025E [6] Valuation - DCF valuation estimates the company's equity value at HKD 132.31 billion, corresponding to a share price of HKD 41.49 per share [9] - The valuation is based on a WACC of 8.4% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [9] Operational Highlights - The company has launched over 100 at-home testing services and 27 home care services, covering 14 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [8] - The company is benefiting from government subsidies for elderly-friendly products, which partially offset the impact of stricter regulations on certain medical devices [9] Market Performance - The stock has shown significant volatility over the past year, with a 12-month absolute return of -30.5% [4] - Relative to the MSCI China index, the stock underperformed by 38.4% over the past 12 months [4]