惠誉博华2025年信用展望：航空公司

Investment Rating - The credit outlook for the airline industry in 2025 is rated as "Low Prosperity Positive" by Fitch Bohua [39]. Core Insights - The Chinese civil aviation industry is transitioning from recovery growth in 2023 to a natural growth phase starting in 2024, with passenger demand expected to maintain single-digit growth in domestic routes and a faster recovery in international routes [39][20]. - The overall profitability of the industry is anticipated to significantly improve due to the release of demand elasticity in domestic routes and the gradual recovery of international routes, despite ongoing price pressures and operational challenges for smaller airlines [39][20]. - The report highlights that the demand for air travel is supported by rising disposable income, increased public holidays, and government policies aimed at boosting consumption [7][39]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2023, the total turnover of civil aviation reached 1,188.3 billion ton-kilometers, marking a year-on-year growth of 98.3% [2]. - For the first ten months of 2024, the total turnover increased by 26.5% to 1,238.3 billion ton-kilometers compared to the same period in 2019 [2][20]. Passenger Demand - Passenger turnover increased by 26.6% to 10,873.3 billion passenger-kilometers, with domestic routes showing a monthly growth rate of 20.6% [2][20]. - International routes are recovering but still lag behind domestic routes, with a monthly growth rate of -16.8% compared to 2019 [2][20]. Cargo Demand - Cargo turnover grew by 27.1% to 288.5 billion ton-kilometers, with international routes experiencing a significant increase of 47.3% due to strong export support [2][20]. Supply Chain and Capacity - The delivery of aircraft is facing delays due to supply chain disruptions, with expected supply growth falling short of projections [12][16]. - The report anticipates that the supply growth rate will decline to approximately 2.0% from 2024 to 2026, indicating strong supply constraints [16]. Financial Performance - The report projects that the airline industry's revenue will grow by approximately 6.0% in 2025, with a profit increase of 51.9% compared to the previous year [23][39]. - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased significantly, which may stimulate demand among price-sensitive customers [21][39]. Market Position and Risks - Airlines with strong market positions, effective cost control, and diverse route networks are expected to benefit from improving fundamentals, while smaller and non-listed airlines may face increased operational and financial risks [39][20]. - The report notes that the reliance on government subsidies is decreasing, indicating a recovery in operational performance [39][32].