央国企专题系列：新一轮改革下看好食饮央国企投资价值提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically highlighting the investment value of state-owned enterprises in the sector [7][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the food and beverage industry under the new round of state-owned enterprise reforms, suggesting three main investment themes: 1) Strengthening key area guarantees, ensuring supply chain security; 2) Deep participation in global division of labor to build Chinese brands; 3) Increasing vertical integration and improving governance [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Opportunities in the Liquor Sector - The investment value of state-owned liquor companies is expected to rise due to their increased flexibility in responding to industry cycles, enhanced dividend returns, and a focus on local quality asset management [6][36]. 2. Investment Clues in Consumer Goods - The report identifies three dimensions for finding investment clues related to state-owned enterprise reforms in consumer goods: 1) Strengthening key area guarantees, particularly in dairy and seasoning products; 2) Deep participation in global division of labor, with companies like Mengniu Dairy achieving breakthroughs in overseas markets; 3) Mergers and acquisitions and efficiency improvements, with companies like Hengshun Vinegar and Mengniu Dairy expected to benefit from reforms [6][54][56]. 3. Specific Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, the report recommends focusing on Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Jianshijiu. In the consumer goods sector, it suggests looking at Hengshun Vinegar, Angel Yeast, China Resources Beverage, Mengniu Dairy, and Zhongju Gaoxin [7][8]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several key companies, indicating a positive outlook for their financial performance [8]. For example, Guizhou Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 67.45 in 2024 with a PE of 23, while Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.33 with a PE of 18 [8]. 5. Importance of State-Owned Enterprises - The report highlights the critical role of state-owned enterprises in maintaining national strategic security and their ability to lead the industry towards long-term development, particularly in essential sectors like dairy and seasoning [54][62]. 6. Global Expansion and Competitiveness - State-owned enterprises are positioned to enhance their global competitiveness through internationalization strategies, as exemplified by Mengniu Dairy's efforts to establish a global presence and improve operational efficiency [63][70]. 7. Dividend Policies - The report notes that state-owned liquor companies have increased their dividend payouts significantly, with Guizhou Moutai planning to maintain a dividend ratio of no less than 75% from 2024 to 2026 [43][50]. 8. Market Dynamics and Consumer Trends - The report discusses the current market dynamics, including the impact of economic cycles on liquor consumption and the potential for consumer goods to recover as demand stabilizes [36][43].