公用环保行业周报：广东发布2025年电力市场交易方案全球气价季节性上涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the utility and environmental sectors, particularly in electricity and natural gas [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a 4.3% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption in October, with significant contributions from various sectors [6][7]. - The Guangdong province has set a trading scale cap of 3,800 billion kWh for 2025, with an increase in long-term contracts [17]. - Global natural gas prices are experiencing an upward trend due to seasonal demand and geopolitical tensions [22][36]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - In October, total electricity consumption reached 7,742 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%. The first, second, and third industries, along with urban and rural residents, contributed to this growth [6][8]. - The Guangdong electricity market is expected to grow by 500 billion kWh in 2025, with long-term contracts projected to account for 58.5% of the market [17]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Yangtze Power, Guodian Power, and China Nuclear Power, due to their growth potential in the electricity sector [20]. Natural Gas Sector - As of November 22, the Henry Hub spot price was $2.41/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly increase of 46.06%. The TTF price in Europe was €46.53/MWh, with a 2.04% increase [22][23]. - The report suggests that the rising prices are driven by increased domestic demand and LNG export needs in the U.S., as well as cold weather in Europe leading to higher consumption rates [26][29]. - Recommended companies in the natural gas sector include China Gas, Kunlun Energy, and New Hope Energy, focusing on their profitability recovery [41]. Environmental Sector - The report emphasizes the benefits of debt-for-equity swaps and the convenience of swaps in promoting environmental projects, recommending companies like Hongcheng Environment and Yongxing Co. for their stable performance [20]. - The implementation of the EU's bio-jet fuel policy is anticipated to impact the market, with a focus on SAF-related companies [20]. Market Performance - The report notes that the utility, environmental, and power equipment sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of November 16 to November 22 [43].