2024年第三季度住宅市场概览：带你看中国

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the residential market, reflecting ongoing adjustments and government interventions aimed at stabilizing the market [3][10][20]. Core Insights - The residential market in China is experiencing a continued downturn, with sales volume, real estate development investment, and land supply-demand dynamics showing a downward trend [3][9]. - A series of supportive policies have been introduced by the government to stabilize the market, including interest rate cuts and adjustments to mortgage requirements [3][4][5]. - The cumulative investment in residential development for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 7.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1% [9][10]. - The average premium rate for residential land in first-tier cities rose to 8.9%, while second-tier cities recorded a premium rate of 3.4% [20]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures - A comprehensive set of policies was introduced in late September and early October, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 25 basis point cut in the LPR [5][6]. - The government has encouraged local authorities to tailor policies to their specific markets, leading to the relaxation of purchase restrictions in major cities [4][5]. Market Performance - In the first nine months of 2024, the total sales area of commercial housing was 700 million square meters, down 17.1% year-on-year, with residential sales area declining by 19.2% [11][20]. - The new housing transaction volume in 20 key cities fell by 19.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, with first-tier cities seeing a decrease of 8.9% [11][20]. Construction and Investment Trends - The cumulative new construction area for residential properties in the first three quarters of 2024 was 410 million square meters, down 22.4% year-on-year [9][10]. - The report highlights a persistent lack of investment willingness among developers, with overall residential development investment remaining under pressure [9][10]. Price Trends - In September 2024, new residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with second-tier cities experiencing a similar decline of 0.7% [15][20]. - The report notes that the price decline in second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities was more pronounced, averaging a drop of 1.2% [15][20].