造纸行业点评：行业供给阶段性收缩，短期提价确定性高；行业盈利磨底多年，中长期供需格局有望优化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the paper industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [1]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a phase of supply contraction, leading to a high certainty of price increases in the short term. The profitability of the industry has been at a low point for several years, but the supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The paper industry has faced continuous pressure since the peak in H1 2021, with many companies, including Chenming Paper, experiencing significant operational challenges. As of Q3 2024, the profitability of major paper companies has declined further, with a combined net profit of -0.36 billion RMB for four major pulp and paper companies [1]. Price Trends - As of November 22, 2024, the average prices for double glue paper, copper plate paper, and white card paper were 5113, 5340, and 4160 RMB per ton, respectively, marking historical lows since 2014. The gross profit margins for these products are also negative, indicating a loss situation [1]. Production Adjustments - Chenming Paper has announced production cuts and shutdowns across multiple bases due to ongoing losses and tight liquidity. This includes a total production capacity reduction of 703,000 tons, affecting monthly output by approximately 580,000 tons and sales by about 350,000 tons [1]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the recent production cuts by Chenming may lead to a temporary improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with price increases expected in the near future. The upcoming peak consumption season for white card paper and the bidding season for cultural paper are anticipated to support this price recovery [1]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends investing in companies with integrated pulp and paper operations and strong management, such as Sun Paper, Bohui Paper, and Nine Dragons Paper, which are expected to benefit from the evolving market conditions [1].