HTI日本消费行业10月跟踪报告：零售增速放缓，食品饮料需求改善

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on Japanese consumer companies with significant overseas business exposure, such as ASICS, PPIH, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group [2]. Core Insights - Retail growth in Japan has slowed, with September retail sales increasing by only 0.5%, the lowest since 2022, while food and beverage demand is gradually improving [2][12]. - The consumer confidence index fell to 36.2 in October, marking a five-month low, despite a 0.9% quarter-on-quarter increase in private consumption [4][9]. - The report highlights the impact of weather on winter clothing sales, leading to a negative growth in department store sales for the first time in 32 months [27]. Macroeconomic Summary - Q3 GDP grew by 0.3% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, with private consumption up by 0.9% [9]. - The inflation rate dropped to 2.3% in October, the lowest level since January [6]. - Real wages decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in September, marking the second consecutive month of decline [4]. Industry Summary - Retail sales growth has slowed, with department store sales declining by 0.7% year-on-year in September, the first negative growth since February 2022 [12]. - Food and beverage retail sales in September were approximately 40.37 billion yen, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [13]. - The report notes that the demand for essential goods, particularly food and beverages, is improving, with PPIH and 711 Japan reporting year-on-year same-store sales growth of 3.9% and 0.4%, respectively [13]. Selected Company Performance - Asahi Group's domestic beer revenue increased by 6% year-on-year in October, while Kirin's beer sales rose by 36% [19]. - Fast Retailing's same-store sales for Uniqlo fell by 7.5% year-on-year in October, attributed to high temperatures affecting winter clothing sales [30]. - The report indicates that major dining companies like Salia and Toridoll saw same-store sales growth of 17.4% and 13.4%, respectively, in October [27].