以史为鉴，基于股价复盘看本轮家居如何演绎？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home furnishing sector [7]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector experienced a maximum increase of 33.74% from September to October 2024, driven by a combination of national policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and local initiatives promoting home upgrades [2][19]. - Historical analysis shows that home furnishing stocks have undergone nine rounds of over 30% price increases in the past 20 years, indicating strong price elasticity in the sector during real estate upturns [2][25]. - The current policy environment is more sustainable compared to previous cycles, with expectations for continued support for home upgrades and stabilization in the real estate market, potentially leading to improved market conditions by 2025 [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Price Review and Home Furnishing Trends - The home furnishing sector's valuation has seen recovery, with a recent increase of 26.71% as of November 23, 2024, although it remains at a low PE percentile of 27% over the past five years [19][20]. - The sector's performance is closely tied to real estate market dynamics, with significant historical price movements linked to policy changes and economic conditions [19][21]. 2. Comparative Analysis of Current and Past Market Conditions - The macroeconomic environment in late 2022 and late 2024 shows similarities, with both periods experiencing weak real estate data and significant policy interventions aimed at stabilizing the market [10][11]. - The current home upgrade policies are expected to have a stronger sustainability compared to previous interventions, with local governments actively participating in subsidy programs [11][12]. 3. Future Outlook for the Home Furnishing Sector - The report identifies two main investment themes: the sustainability of home upgrade policies and the recovery of the real estate market, which are expected to drive demand for home furnishing products [12][19]. - Key segments to watch include soft furnishings, smart home products, and customized home solutions, particularly those that align well with government initiatives [12][19].