2024年全球系统重要性银行名单公布，中国G-SIBs总损失吸收能力首阶段达标无虞

Core Insights - The 2024 Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) list was published by the Financial Stability Board (FSB), confirming the predictions made earlier by Fitch Bohua regarding Chinese banks' compliance with the first phase of Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) requirements [2][3] - Chinese G-SIBs, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, remain in the second bucket, while Bank of Communications continues in the first bucket [2][3] Group 1: G-SIBs Compliance and TLAC Requirements - The four major Chinese banks are required to meet TLAC/RWA ratios of at least 16% by 2025 and 18% by early 2028, while Bank of Communications must meet the first phase requirements by January 1, 2027 [4] - As of the end of Q3 2024, the TLAC/RWA ratios for the four major banks were approximately 19.4% for ICBC, 19.6% for CCB, 19.2% for BOC, and 18.3% for ABC, indicating they are on track to meet the first phase requirements [9][10] - The static TLAC/RWA gap for Bank of Communications as of Q3 2024 was estimated at 71.9 billion, with potential future gaps depending on the growth rate of risk-weighted assets (RWA) [10][12] Group 2: Future Projections and Asset Growth - The average growth rate of risk-weighted assets for Chinese G-SIBs was approximately 7.7% in 2022 and 10.6% in 2023, with expectations of continued high growth rates for state-owned banks [11][12] - If the five G-SIBs maintain a profit growth rate of 3% and a payout ratio of 30%, the estimated TLAC shortfall for the second phase could reach approximately 931.9 billion, potentially increasing to 2.22 trillion if asset growth rates are higher [12][16] - The implementation of the new Capital Management Measures is expected to have a one-time impact on the growth of risk-weighted assets for G-SIBs in 2024, but overall asset growth is anticipated to remain robust [11][12]