A股三季报分析：需求仍待回暖 核心资产指数业绩有望修复

Overall Situation - The overall performance of A-shares remains under pressure, with a year-on-year revenue growth rate of -0.91% for Q3 2024, continuing a downward trend and marking two consecutive quarters of negative growth since H1 2024 [52][58] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of all A-shares also shows a downward trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.48% for Q3 2024, indicating six consecutive quarters of negative growth [52][58] - The overall return on equity (ROE) for A-shares is at a low level, with a TTM ROE of 8.14% as of Q3 2024, slightly recovering from 8.03% in H1 2024, but still declining when excluding financial and oil companies [54][56] Major Index Analysis - Core indices in A-shares maintain relative resilience, but most broad indices show declining revenue growth. For instance, the ChiNext 50 index has experienced significant negative revenue growth for three consecutive reporting periods [62][64] - The net profit growth of major core asset indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 remains positive, but the growth rate is at historically low levels [62][64] Industry Performance Analysis - Among 13 industries, only a few have shown positive growth in revenue and net profit, with electronics and non-banking sectors performing relatively well [5][6] - The overall ROE for most consumer industries shows a slowdown in growth, while some upstream cyclical industries exhibit marginal improvements [5][6] Different Enterprise Nature Analysis - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) have shown a recovery in net profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of over 10% in Q3 2024, while local state-owned and private enterprises continue to experience negative growth [96][93] - The revenue growth rate for private enterprises remains positive but is at a historically low level as of 2024 [93][96] Style Performance and Valuation Analysis - Different style indices show a general trend of negative revenue growth in Q3 2024, with large-cap value indices performing relatively better compared to small-cap indices [73][75] - The return on equity (ROE) for large-cap growth indices has shown marginal improvement entering 2024, while small-cap growth indices continue to experience negative growth [75][82] Market Trends and Valuation Levels - The A-share market has experienced a significant rebound in late September 2024, driven by policy changes and improved market sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3300-point mark [88][89] - As of November 20, 2024, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several indices have exceeded the 50% median of the past decade, indicating a rise in valuation levels despite slowing earnings growth [89][92]