电力行业2024年三季报综述：供需两旺，火电改善超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the electricity and public utilities sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [4]. Core Insights - The electricity sector has shown robust growth in demand, with total electricity consumption reaching 74,094 billion kilowatt-hours in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [3][24]. - The report highlights a recovery in thermal power generation, with significant improvements noted in August and September 2024, following a low point in July [3][4]. - Overall revenue for the electricity sector increased by 1.6% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by higher generation volumes and a recovery in thermal power [3][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Sector Overview - The electricity sector experienced a strong demand with a total consumption of 27,520 billion kilowatt-hours in Q3 2024, reflecting a 7.7% year-on-year growth [3][24]. - The overall generation capacity increased, with a total generation of 70,560 billion kilowatt-hours in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 5.4% increase compared to the previous year [3][26]. 2. Thermal Power Sector - The thermal power sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 858.5 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.9% year-on-year, but showed a recovery in Q3 with a revenue increase of 0.09% [3][53]. - The average price of Shanxi mixed coal decreased by 11.2% year-on-year to 871 yuan per ton, contributing to improved profit margins [3][59]. - In Q3 2024, 13 companies in the thermal power sector reported revenue growth, with Longyuan Power and Jian Investment Energy leading the growth rates [3][72]. 3. Hydropower Sector - The hydropower sector saw a revenue increase of 9.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with a 21.0% increase in net profit [3][7]. - The sector's profitability improved, with a gross margin increase of 1.88 percentage points in Q3 2024 compared to the previous year [3][7]. 4. Green Power Sector - The green power sector reported a revenue increase of 1.0% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with Q3 showing a 2.8% increase [3][7]. - Profitability remains a concern, as 8 out of 12 sampled companies in the green power sector experienced a decline in gross margins in Q3 2024 [3][7]. 5. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a positive outlook for the thermal power sector in Q4 2024, driven by stable fuel prices and a favorable regulatory environment [4][7]. - It recommends focusing on leading thermal power companies in the Yangtze River Delta and those benefiting from market reforms [4][7].