2025航空及海外飞机制造链年度策略：全球格局持续演变，静待我国航司迈入成熟期

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the aviation sector, particularly highlighting the cyclical recovery potential and strong supply-demand fundamentals [3][4]. Core Insights - The global aviation market is experiencing a supply chain disruption and increasing concentration among airlines, with a slow recovery in aircraft production capacity due to various issues affecting manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus [2][3]. - Domestic demand in China is steadily growing, with high passenger load factors and a potential recovery in ticket prices, indicating a favorable long-term market outlook [3][4]. - The report anticipates that Chinese airlines will enter a maturity phase characterized by a slowdown in fleet growth, with potential zero or negative growth years before 2030, which could enhance airline profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Aircraft Supply Chain Disruption - The aircraft manufacturing supply chain remains disordered, with no signs of a trend reversal, leading to a continued tight supply situation globally [3][4]. - Boeing's production capacity is expected to recover slowly, while Airbus's capacity growth is limited to around 3% [2][3]. 2. Global Airline Market Concentration - The global airline landscape is gradually consolidating, particularly in international long-haul routes, which are expected to see higher concentration levels [3][4]. - The report notes that the recovery of international routes is stable, aided by visa waivers and increasing traveler confidence [2][3]. 3. Outlook for Chinese Airlines - The aviation sector in China is in a favorable supply-demand phase, with historical high load factors and a positive outlook for ticket prices [3][4]. - The report recommends prioritizing investments in the aviation sector, highlighting companies such as Juneyao Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Air China, and several others, while also suggesting attention to global aircraft leasing companies and airports with growing passenger traffic [3][4].