24年策略展望系列1：宽财政如何拉动企业盈利？

Group 1: Economic Impact of Fiscal Policy - The effect of Japan's fiscal expansion in the 1990s on corporate profits weakened over time due to a declining capacity cycle and limited inventory cycle elasticity, with a trend reversal after 2012[2] - In China, fiscal expansion from 2013 to 2014 saw weak recovery in corporate inventory and profits, while a capacity cycle upturn post-2016 improved both inventory and profit recovery elasticity[2] - Currently, the A-share market is at the bottom of the capacity and inventory cycles, with projected non-financial net profit growth of 20% and 10% for 2025 under strong and weak fiscal scenarios, respectively[2] Group 2: Historical Lessons from Japan - Japan's corporate inventory cycle weakened during the long capacity de-leveraging phase post-1990s, with limited amplitude and duration of inventory recovery[3] - After 2012, strong stimulus policies led to a sustained expansion phase for Japanese corporations, improving both inventory cycle amplitude and duration[3] - The relationship between capacity cycles and corporate profitability is significant; a downtrend in capacity correlates with declining revenue and profit growth, while an uptrend supports sustained improvements[4] Group 3: Predictions for A-Share Market - If fiscal policies are effectively strengthened, A-share profit growth could significantly improve, similar to the 2016 scenario where non-financial revenue growth increased by approximately 14 percentage points[5] - In a limited fiscal scenario, A-share profit recovery would be weak, with revenue growth only increasing by about 2 percentage points in 2013[5] - Based on historical models, projected revenue and net profit growth for A-shares in 2025 could range from 5% to 10% and 10% to 20%, respectively, compared to 2024[5]