2025年宏观经济展望：在特朗普2.0 的不确定性中寻找确定性

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic uncertainty increases significantly with Trump's potential re-election, particularly due to his tariff policies[2] - The US may impose tariffs on 25-50% of China's exports to the US in the second half of 2025, potentially impacting China's GDP by 0.3-0.6 percentage points[2] China's Economic Policy - China's fiscal deficit ratio is expected to rise to 3.5%-4.0% in 2025, with new special bond issuance increasing by 300-600 billion yuan[2] - Monetary policy will remain accommodative, with 20-30 basis points of rate cuts and 50-100 basis points of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts expected in 2025[2] - At least 800 billion yuan of new special bonds will be allocated to support land acquisition and storage, with an initial scale of 300 billion yuan for central bank loans[2] Domestic Demand and Inflation - Domestic demand in China is expected to improve significantly in 2025, with investment and consumption contributing 0.9 percentage points more to GDP than in 2024[2] - Inflation is projected to rise, with CPI expected to increase to 0.8% in 2025, helping nominal GDP growth rise by 0.5 percentage points to 4.7%[21] US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to achieve a soft landing, with GDP growth slowing from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025[13] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates six times by 25 basis points each, bringing the policy rate down to 3.0% by the end of 2025[13] Trade and Tariffs - Net exports are expected to contribute negatively to China's GDP in 2025, with a projected contribution of -0.2 percentage points, down from +1.2 percentage points in 2024[20] - If tariffs on all Chinese exports to the US rise to 60%, China's GDP growth could be reduced by 2.3 percentage points[69] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate investment in China is expected to decline by 5.0% in 2025, an improvement from the -10.5% decline in 2024[33] - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2025, driven by improvements in infrastructure and manufacturing investment[30] Consumer and Retail - Retail sales growth in China is expected to accelerate to 5.0% in 2025, up from 3.6% in 2024, supported by policy incentives and labor market improvements[43] - Consumer confidence remains weak, with the consumer confidence index continuing to decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in boosting consumption[41] Export and Import Trends - China's export growth is expected to slow to 1.0% in 2025, down from 5.0% in 2024, due to global economic conditions and potential tariff impacts[51] - Import growth is projected to remain low, with a slight increase to 2.0% in 2025, driven by weak domestic demand and falling commodity prices[59] Risks and Uncertainties - Key risks include the potential for a slower-than-expected recovery in China's real estate sector and the impact of US tariff policies on trade and economic growth[3] - The US faces risks of re-inflation if Trump's policies lead to faster-than-expected tariff increases or immigration restrictions[3]