机械设备：11月挖机预估+13%，关注顺周期通用设备

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [5]. Core Views - The mechanical equipment index decreased by 0.33% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.60% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.03%. The mechanical equipment sector ranked 6th among 31 industries in terms of performance [20][21]. - The estimated sales of excavators in November 2024 are projected to be around 16,900 units, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 13%. The domestic market is expected to see sales of 8,600 units, up nearly 15% year-on-year, while exports are anticipated to reach 8,300 units, reflecting a growth of nearly 12% [2]. - The report highlights that the excavator market has entered a downward cycle since 2022, with 2024 expected to be a bottoming year for the domestic market. A large-scale equipment update policy is anticipated to initiate a new replacement cycle in 2025 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The mechanical equipment index's valuation level is at 30.1 times, excluding negative values. The top-performing sectors last week included robotics, lithium battery equipment, and semiconductor equipment [20][21]. Engineering Machinery - The overall sales of excavators in China have shown a positive growth of 1.5% year-on-year from January to November 2024, with domestic sales increasing by over 10.3% [2]. - The report suggests that the domestic excavator market will benefit from favorable monetary and fiscal policies aimed at infrastructure and a stabilization policy in real estate [2]. General Equipment - In October, the production of metal cutting machine tools reached 59,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. The industrial robot production in October was 50,916 units, up 33.4% year-on-year [3]. - The manufacturing PMI index for October was 50.1%, indicating a slight recovery in demand-driven production [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities arising from large-scale equipment updates, overseas expansion of equipment, AI applications, and the increasing penetration of new technologies [4].