1-10月工企利润数据点评：关注后续财政政策对企业盈利的呵护

Economic Overview - From January to October 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached CNY 58,680.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, with a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters[1] - In October 2024, the profit of industrial enterprises fell by 10.0% year-on-year, a narrowing of the decline by 17.1 percentage points compared to September[2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The operating revenue of industrial enterprises from January to October 2024 grew by 1.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous three quarters, with revenue per CNY 100 of assets at CNY 77.3, an increase of CNY 0.1[2] - Operating costs increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, indicating cost pressures affecting profitability[2] Profitability Insights - The operating profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.3% from January to October 2024, unchanged from the previous three quarters[2] - The industrial added value growth rate in October was 5.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from September, indicating ongoing production activity support for profitability[3] Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector's profit decreased by 4.2% year-on-year from January to October 2024, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, indicating weakening support for profitability[5] - The contribution of the raw material processing industry to profit growth was negative, dragging down the cumulative year-on-year growth rate by 3.6 percentage points, with significant negative contributions from the petroleum, coal, and non-metallic mineral industries[5] Future Outlook - Continuous negative profit growth for industrial enterprises over three months may impact household income and consumption demand, necessitating fiscal policy support to stimulate demand and improve the cycle between corporate profits and household income[15] - A correlation coefficient of 0.7 between cumulative profit growth and disposable income growth suggests that insufficient industrial profits may lead to weak consumer demand, highlighting the need for fiscal intervention[15]