参考境内外百年历史：股市合理回报率是多少？

Stock Market Performance - Global stock markets have shown long-term outperformance over other asset classes, with real annualized returns of 5.3% globally and 6.6% in the US from 1900-2020[3] - Emerging markets like South Africa achieved the highest real annualized return at 7.1% during the same period[3] - China's A-share market delivered strong returns, with the CSI 300 index achieving an annualized return of 8.6% from 2005-2023[3] Market Fundamentals - Stock market returns are closely tied to GDP growth, with faster-growing economies like China (10%) and Taiwan (10%) showing higher equity returns[29] - Corporate earnings and dividends drive stock returns, contributing 9.5% annually for US stocks (4.5% from dividends, 5% from earnings growth)[4] - China's CSI 300 index saw 9.6% annual returns from 2005-2023, with 9.4% coming from earnings growth and 2.0% from dividends[33] Investment Strategies - US active funds underperformed benchmarks, with only 36% beating the S&P 500 annually from 2001-2023[40] - High fees (average 0.65% for active funds vs 0.05% for index funds) contribute to active fund underperformance in the US[42] - China's active funds outperformed indices by 2.7-3.3% annually from 2004-2023, but this advantage may narrow as institutionalization progresses[49] Market Structure - US market is highly institutionalized, with institutions holding 55.5% of market value in Q2 2024[47] - China's institutional investor ratio rose from 33.5% in 2019 to 41.3% in Q3 2024, while retail investor ratio declined from 42.7% to 32.5%[51] - Passive fund assets in China grew rapidly, reaching 3.69 trillion yuan in Q3 2024, nearly matching active fund assets of 3.75 trillion yuan[51]