2025年国防军工行业投资策略：五重逻辑驱动行业快速发展，把握新质及高端战力主线

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, driven by high demand expectations and the release of long-term demand from the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [3][19] Core Views - The defense industry is in a new growth cycle, with demand for high-end combat capabilities and new quality combat capabilities driving growth [3][7] - The industry is expected to benefit from the recovery of production rhythms, increased military trade, and reforms to improve enterprise efficiency [3][4] - The report highlights five key drivers: demand certainty, reversal of industry challenges, new quality combat capabilities, increased military trade, and reform and restructuring [3][4] Valuation and Market Performance - The current PE-TTM valuation of the defense sector is 71X, higher than the median of 57X since January 2019, indicating a relatively high valuation range [11] - Public fund allocations to the defense sector remain at historically high levels, with institutions favoring stocks with higher elasticity [17] Demand Drivers - China is in the midst of a new round of military construction, with a focus on improving quality and quantity, particularly in informatization and intelligentization [27] - The frequency of live-fire exercises has increased, leading to higher ammunition consumption, with missile and artillery consumption growing significantly [32][34] - Global military spending is rising due to regional conflicts, which is expected to boost the military trade market [61] New Quality Combat Capabilities - New quality combat capabilities, including satellite, low-altitude economy, underwater equipment, and new materials/technologies, are becoming new growth engines [47][56] - The report emphasizes the importance of satellite constellations, low-altitude economy, and underwater equipment as key investment areas [56] Military Trade and Export Opportunities - The global military trade market is expanding, with China's military exports expected to grow, particularly in advanced fighter jets, drones, and long-range rockets [67][72] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to further open up military trade markets along the route, with China's new military equipment models meeting high-end demand [72] Reform and Restructuring - State-owned enterprise reforms are deepening, with asset restructuring and equity incentives being key components [73] - Companies with high-quality assets outside their core business are expected to undergo restructuring, particularly in the defense sector [78] - Equity incentives are being implemented in qualified enterprises, with the number of companies adopting such incentives increasing [84] High-End Combat Capabilities - Precision-guided weapons, aviation host factories, high-end materials, and electronic support are key areas of growth in high-end combat capabilities [4][7] - The missile industry is expected to see significant growth, driven by increased demand and consumption [91] - The aviation industry, particularly military aircraft and engines, is entering a high-growth phase, with new models and export opportunities driving demand [99][101] High-End Materials - High-end materials such as carbon fiber, high-temperature alloys, and titanium are expected to see increased demand due to the recovery of aviation host factory orders [110] - The domestic carbon fiber market is growing, with localization rates increasing due to stricter export controls and improved domestic technology [115] - High-temperature alloys and titanium materials are expected to see significant demand growth, driven by military and civilian aviation development [122][123] Electronic Support - The military's informatization drive is accelerating, with electronic support components such as passive components, connectors, and data links expected to benefit [130] - Passive components, particularly capacitors, are expected to see growth opportunities due to increased demand for domestic substitution [133]