农林牧渔行业11月行业动态报告：关注25年成本优化下的生猪养殖利润弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector, specifically focusing on the pig farming industry and related companies [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential profit elasticity in pig farming under cost optimization in 2025, with expectations of stable average prices throughout the year, driven by continuous cost improvements by leading companies [4][46]. - The agricultural index underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in November, with a decline of 1.50% [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of winter weather on disease outbreaks, which could affect pig prices [4][46]. Summary by Sections Price Indicators and Market Trends - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% year-on-year, with pork prices showing a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [2][16]. - The import value of agricultural products in October was $16.043 billion, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year, while exports increased by 10.9% to $9.189 billion [2][16]. Focus on Pig Farming Profitability - As of November, pig prices decreased by 5.3%, with the price on November 27 at 16.37 yuan/kg, down 22.7% from the peak on August 15 [3][40]. - The number of breeding sows at the end of October was 40.73 million, a slight increase of 0.3% month-on-month but a decrease of 3.3% year-on-year [3][40]. - The report suggests that the average price of pigs in 2024 is expected to rise, with significant profit potential for companies that effectively manage costs [4][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading pig farming companies with strong cost control and healthy financial conditions, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Tian Kang Biological [4]. - It also suggests monitoring the poultry sector, particularly broiler chicken prices, which are expected to rise due to low supply levels [4]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the pet sector and recommends companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [4]. Performance Metrics - The agricultural index's performance was weaker than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with notable declines in the planting and breeding sectors [4]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the earnings per share (EPS) and return on equity (ROE) trends in the agricultural sector, indicating fluctuations in profitability over recent years [27][32].