建筑行业2025年度投资策略：寻找优势企业的超额机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction sector [4]. Core Insights - The construction and building materials sector faced pressure in 2024, with a decline in revenue and profit for the first three quarters, while large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) performed well [1][62]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to improve due to debt reduction and fiscal policy support, with a projected contribution of 5.7% to infrastructure investment growth from fiscal tools [1]. - The real estate sector is anticipated to stabilize due to a combination of supportive policies, with expected year-on-year increases in construction and completion areas in 2025-2026 [1]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Construction and Building Materials Overview - Fixed asset investment growth was steady at 3.4% in the first three quarters of 2024, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.1% [43]. - The construction sector's revenue for listed companies decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, with total revenue of 62,282.5 billion [57][58]. 2. 2025 Outlook - Infrastructure investment is expected to return to stable growth, supported by debt reduction and fiscal policy [1]. - The real estate market is projected to stabilize with the easing of purchase restrictions [1]. 3. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises, high-growth sectors, and cyclical companies for investment opportunities [8]. - Key recommended companies include China Railway Construction, China State Construction, and China Energy Engineering among others [8]. 4. Building Materials Investment Strategy - The report suggests investing in leading cement companies and consumer building materials firms, anticipating price elasticity and market share growth [8].