如何看待10月生猪产能数据

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - As of the end of October, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.73 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. The growth rate compared to the previous month narrowed by 0.3 percentage points. The inventory of pigs over five months old decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, indicating a potential reduction in the market supply of pigs in the next 2-3 months. With the weather getting colder, pork consumption is expected to enter the traditional peak season, driven by winter curing and holiday consumption, leading to a significant increase in demand and a potential rebound in pig prices, ensuring profitability in pig farming [2][11][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Breeding Sow Inventory in October - The breeding sow inventory increased by 0.3% month-on-month, reaching 40.73 million heads, which is 104.4% of the normal holding capacity of 39 million heads. The inventory of pigs over five months old decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, suggesting a decrease in market supply in the coming months [21][11]. 2. Future Pig Price Trends and Capacity Changes 2.1 Expected Profitability in Q4 - Pig prices are expected to maintain profitability in Q4 due to a supply shortage caused by winter epidemic losses. The average price of live pigs remains above cost levels, and traditional peak consumption periods in November and December are anticipated to support prices [42]. 2.2 Continued Increase in Breeding Sow Inventory - The breeding sow inventory is expected to show stable slight increases, driven by seasonal demand and stable disease conditions. Unless severe disease outbreaks occur, the impact on production capacity is expected to weaken [45]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on investment opportunities with high realization rates and low valuations. The "confidence index" in pig farming may have reached a turning point, with expectations of rising pig prices and improving farming results. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Lihua Stock, along with post-cycle animal health and feed sectors like Haida Group [46].