电气设备行业专题研究：东南亚双反落地在即，美国光伏格局影响几何？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment industry [9] Core Insights - The upcoming anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) investigations in Southeast Asia are expected to significantly impact the export advantages of components from the region to the U.S. market [41] - The U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) supply structure is anticipated to shift towards a model of "importing materials + local assembly" due to the rapid increase in domestic component production supported by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) [6][41] - The long-term demand for solar energy in the U.S. is primarily driven by the economic viability of solar power, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar being competitive compared to traditional energy sources [2] Summary by Sections Supply Dynamics - The initial ruling of the anti-subsidy investigation against four Southeast Asian countries is imminent, which may affect their component export advantages [23] - The U.S. has implemented multiple trade barriers against imported solar products since 2012, significantly impacting the ability of domestic companies to export directly to the U.S. [24] - The domestic solar component production capacity in the U.S. has rapidly increased, reaching 45.1 GW as of October 2024, which is expected to meet local installation demands [1] Demand Factors - Historical data indicates that significant changes in energy policy have led to declines in solar installations in the U.S. in 2017 and 2022, highlighting the importance of stable energy policies for long-term growth [2] - The economic viability of solar projects, driven by high Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) prices and declining interest rates, is expected to enhance investment enthusiasm among developers [2] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading battery production capacities outside the four Southeast Asian countries, such as Hengdian East Magnetic, Junda Co., and Shijing Technology [6] - It also suggests investing in companies with established local production capacities in the U.S., including Canadian Solar, Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, and JA Solar [6]