2024年11月PMI数据点评：政策支撑制造业继续向好，但通胀和地产待提振

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.3% in November, marking two consecutive months in the expansion zone, indicating a solid economic recovery trend[1] - The production index rose to 52.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting accelerated production expansion due to policy effects and seasonal factors[9] - The new orders index improved to 50.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing demand supported by both domestic and external factors[12] Group 2: Sector Performance and Economic Balance - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) contributed significantly to the PMI rebound, with their indices rising by 1.6 and 0.6 percentage points respectively, while large enterprises saw a decline of 0.6 percentage points[2] - High-tech and consumer goods manufacturing PMIs increased by over 1 percentage point, demonstrating the positive impact of new policies[12] - The construction PMI fell to 49.7%, down 0.7 percentage points, entering the contraction zone for the first time post-pandemic, primarily due to cold weather and a sluggish real estate market[26] Group 3: Price Trends and Inflation Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by approximately -3.0% in November, with major raw material prices falling and weak real estate investment contributing to this trend[19] - The raw material purchase price index dropped to 49.8%, indicating a contraction, while the factory price index fell to 47.7%, reflecting increased cost pressures on downstream industries[19] - Despite anticipated policy support for industrial prices, external deflationary pressures may continue to weigh on domestic prices in the short term[21]