轻工造纸行业2024年三季报回顾总结：内需Q3触底，期待边际改善；出口演绎Alpha逻辑

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light industry and paper manufacturing sector, anticipating a recovery in domestic demand and performance improvement in Q4 2024 [1]. Core Insights - Q3 2024 saw increased external pressures on domestic demand, leading to revenue and performance challenges for companies. However, with enhanced policy support since Q4, a recovery in domestic demand is expected, particularly benefiting leading companies [1][4]. - Export revenues showed stable growth, with companies exhibiting strong risk resistance and profitability stability. The report highlights the potential for Alpha stocks to outperform amid external disruptions [1][5]. - The home furnishing sector is expected to see a rebound due to favorable policies and market dynamics, with a focus on new categories and channels [1][4]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Q3 2024 results indicate a decline in domestic sales, but the drop is less severe than in custom furniture. Export performance significantly outpaced domestic sales, with a 13.7% increase in export revenue [1][21]. - The report notes that 19 key home furnishing companies experienced a 3.0% decline in revenue year-on-year, with domestic sales down 11.3% and exports up 13.7% [21]. - Profit margins for both domestic and export companies faced pressure, with a reported 38.6% decline in net profit year-on-year for the 19 companies [24]. Light Industry Consumption - The overall domestic demand remains under pressure, but high-quality growth companies are gaining market share. Despite a slowdown in revenue growth, these companies continue to show resilience [1][4]. - The report emphasizes that companies are increasing their expenditure on marketing and operations, leading to profit growth lagging behind revenue growth [4]. Exports - Q3 2024 saw strong demand support, with 16 key export companies reporting a 21.4% year-on-year revenue increase, and a 24.5% increase in Q3 alone [5]. - Profitability was slightly impacted by exchange rate fluctuations, but companies with strong product structure upgrades managed to maintain stable profit levels [5]. Packaging - The report indicates a narrowing decline in revenue for the packaging sector, with 12 key companies reporting a 2.1% year-on-year decrease in revenue, a significant improvement from previous quarters [5]. - Profit margins also showed signs of recovery, particularly in plastic packaging, as leading companies optimized internal efficiencies [5]. Paper Manufacturing - The report highlights a deterioration in profitability for the paper industry in Q3 2024, with a noted decline in demand and rising costs impacting margins [6]. - The report anticipates a potential reversal in the paper price trend, with a focus on companies with integrated supply chain advantages [6].