交运行业一周天地汇：顺丰完成A+H上市，我国航司将步入前所未有的飞机增长停滞期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting the recovery potential in the aviation and logistics sectors [1]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to enter a period of maturity, with domestic airlines likely facing a stagnation in aircraft growth before 2030, potentially leading to zero or negative growth years, which will impact airline performance [5][6]. - The logistics sector, particularly express delivery, is experiencing significant growth, with a 24% year-on-year increase in delivery volume in October, driven by pre-holiday demand [21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "international + supply" dual-driven investment strategy in the aviation sector, with a focus on the recovery of airport operations and the benefits from the new three-runway system at Hong Kong International Airport [22][25]. Summary by Sections Aviation - The aviation sector is currently in a favorable supply-demand phase, with stable domestic demand and high passenger load factors. Ticket prices are expected to recover year-on-year, and international routes are continuously being restored [5][6]. - The new three-runway system at Hong Kong International Airport is expected to enhance operational capacity, allowing for increased flight handling [22]. - Recommended stocks include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Cathay Pacific, with a focus on the recovery of the aviation sector [25]. Logistics - The express delivery industry saw a significant increase in volume, with 163.1 billion packages delivered in October, marking a 24% increase year-on-year [21]. - SF Express has successfully completed its A+H listing, raising approximately 5.65 billion HKD, positioning it as a leader in the express delivery market [21]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong operational efficiency and recovery potential, such as JD Logistics and YTO Express [21]. Shipping - The global shipping sector is undergoing adjustments influenced by macroeconomic factors, with a notable decline in VLCC rates by 24% to 23,322 USD/day [7]. - The report highlights the structural changes in shipping demand, with larger vessels showing better performance compared to smaller ones [6]. - Recommended stocks include COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy, focusing on the recovery of oil and bulk shipping rates [6]. Rail and Road - The report outlines a government initiative aimed at reducing logistics costs, targeting a reduction in the logistics cost-to-GDP ratio to 13.5% by 2027 [26]. - Recent data indicates a slight increase in rail freight volume, with a total of 81.92 million tons transported in the week of November 18-24 [26]. - Recommended stocks include Daqin Railway and China Merchants Jinling, with a focus on logistics efficiency improvements [26].