食品饮料行业周报：茅五加大分红回报，关注港股标的回调机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, indicating that medium to long-term opportunities are emerging as policy shifts stabilize valuations [2][20]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that while the current growth rate is not the most critical factor, the strategic determination and execution capabilities of companies are more important. It suggests that leading companies in the industry have already demonstrated cost-effectiveness and long-term investment value [2][20]. - The report highlights that the demand for the industry is expected to improve fundamentally if positive policy combinations effectively enhance income levels and expectations for businesses and households [2][20]. Summary by Sections Alcoholic Beverages - The report notes a slight decrease in the price of Moutai, with the current price at 2,190 RMB for a single bottle, down 20 RMB week-on-week. The price for a case is 2,245 RMB, down 10 RMB week-on-week. It also mentions that leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are enhancing shareholder returns through dividend plans [3][21]. - The report compares the valuation of leading Chinese liquor companies to their overseas counterparts, suggesting that the former should enjoy a valuation premium due to superior ROE and growth prospects over the next 5-10 years [3][21]. Consumer Goods - The report expresses optimism about the investment opportunities in the dairy sector for the coming year, noting that upstream capacity reduction is accelerating and raw milk prices are stabilizing. It anticipates that the supply-demand relationship will improve, leading to profit recovery for leading companies [4][22]. - It highlights that Qingdao Beer’s valuation has dropped to approximately 13x for 2024, suggesting that there is still room for improvement in product structure, cost advantages, and shareholder returns, making it an attractive investment opportunity [4][22]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.62% increase last week, with the liquor segment rising by 1.71%. The report indicates that the sector outperformed the broader market by 0.80 percentage points [18][43]. - The report details that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 0.44 percentage points during the specified period, with various sub-sectors showing different performance levels [43][44].