宏观和大类资产配置周报：本周A股指数回升

Economic Indicators - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stable economic expansion[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from last month, reflecting a slight contraction in the service sector[1] - The total profit of industrial enterprises from January to October was CNY 58,680.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%[20] Market Performance - The CSI 300 index rose by 1.32% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures increased by 0.82%[1] - Coking coal futures fell by 4.26%, while iron ore futures rose by 2.71% this week[1] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 6 basis points to 2.02%[1] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[2] - Industrial enterprise profits have been negative for three consecutive months, which may impact consumer demand and require further fiscal policy support[2] - The correlation coefficient between the cumulative year-on-year growth of industrial enterprise profits and per capita disposable income is 0.7, indicating a positive relationship[2] Risks and Outlook - Global inflation is declining slower than expected, and there is uncertainty regarding the pace of economic decline in Europe and the U.S.[2] - The focus remains on the implementation of "incremental" policies and the effects of growth stabilization measures in the fourth quarter[3]