经济形势跟踪：实体与金融的预期差

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for November rose to 50.3, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, indicating a recovery in the economy[5] - Domestic orders within the PMI reached a three-year high, suggesting strong internal demand driving the economic improvement[5] - Real estate sales have rebounded, with sales area in November returning to levels seen in 2021, surpassing those of 2022 and 2023[6] Market Dynamics - Despite the recovery in the manufacturing sector, the bond and A-share markets remain dominated by abundant liquidity, with small-cap stocks performing better than large-cap and cyclical stocks[14] - The average daily financing amount in the A-share market remains high, although it has decreased slightly from previous weeks[14] - The bond market has not fully reflected the economic recovery, as long-term bond yields continue to decline despite slightly better-than-expected economic data[12] Currency and Exchange Rates - The US dollar index has remained strong, exerting depreciation pressure on the RMB, with a key observation point being whether the RMB will break the 7.3 level[18] - Since 2022, measures have been taken three times to stabilize the RMB at the 7.3 exchange rate level, indicating a critical threshold for market monitoring[18] Risks and Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, with potential for unexpected changes in macro policies[1] - The recent improvement in economic expectations may not be sustainable, particularly in the context of export performance and global economic conditions[9]