石油化工行业周报：PDH盈利能否复苏？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the potential recovery of PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) profitability, suggesting that while there may be some improvement due to lower propane prices following oil price declines, the overall recovery space for PDH profitability is limited due to significant new domestic capacity [1][15]. - It highlights that the oil price is expected to trend downward, which could improve refining costs, benefiting leading companies in the refining sector [17]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that propane prices generally follow oil price trends, with a historical correlation observed. It mentions that in Q3, while oil prices fell by 7.4%, propane prices increased by 3.8% due to new PDH projects and the resumption of production after maintenance [4]. - The report anticipates that domestic PDH capacity will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 31% from the end of 2018 to the end of 2024, leading to ongoing supply pressure in the industry [10]. Upstream Sector - As of November 29, Brent crude oil futures closed at $72.94 per barrel, a decrease of 2.97% from the previous week. NYMEX futures were at $68 per barrel, down 4.55% [24]. - The report indicates that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.844 million barrels to 428 million barrels, which is 5% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [26]. Refining Sector - The report states that the Singapore refining margin increased to $10.58 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread decreased to $13.14 per barrel, below the historical average of $24.98 per barrel [1]. - It suggests that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust, although current margins remain low [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Oriental Energy, as well as polyester companies like Tongkun Co., given the expected demand recovery [17]. - It also highlights the low-cost advantages of ethane-to-ethylene projects in China, recommending Satellite Chemical for its expansion potential [17]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that while oil prices are expected to decline, they will remain at relatively high levels due to OPEC+ production cuts and shale oil cost support [17]. - It notes that the drilling rig count in the U.S. decreased by one to 582 rigs, reflecting a broader trend in the oil service sector [39].