国防军工行业恒力重工借壳松发股份草案点评：新船价格重回涨势，民营船厂借壳上市

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive investment rating of "Overweight" for the maritime equipment industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new ship prices have returned to an upward trend after a brief adjustment, driven by limited shipyard capacity and an aging fleet. This trend is expected to lead to a significant increase in order values and valuations in the coming years [3]. - The report discusses the acquisition of Hengli Heavy Industry by Songfa Co., which involves an asset swap and issuance of shares valued at 8 billion yuan. The original shareholders have committed to a performance guarantee of 4.8 billion yuan in net profit from 2025 to 2027 [2][3]. - Hengli Heavy Industry has a strong order backlog of 10.8 billion USD and is projected to have a shipbuilding output of 1.84 million CGT in 2027, comparable to Yangzijiang Shipbuilding's capacity [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Songfa Co. plans to acquire Hengli Heavy Industry through an asset swap and issuance of 738 million shares at a price of 10.16 yuan per share, with a total asset value of 8 billion yuan [2]. - The performance guarantee from Hengli's original shareholders includes a commitment to achieve a cumulative net profit of 4.8 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the shipbuilding sector is entering a performance transition period, with a focus on the cost-effectiveness of second and third-tier shipyards. The first-tier shipyards are facing challenges in securing orders for 2028 due to high pricing and limited supply [3]. - The report anticipates that new ship prices will maintain an upward trajectory, with order values expected to reach new highs, thereby enhancing valuations and transitioning into the next fiscal year [3].