造纸轻工行业周报：关注造纸行业格局改善；家居以旧换新提振需求；天振股份深度报告

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the paper and home furnishing industries, indicating a favorable investment rating for these sectors [1]. Core Insights - The paper industry is experiencing supply-demand improvements due to the production halts by Chenming Paper, leading to price stabilization and potential long-term optimization of the industry structure [1][11]. - The home furnishing sector is benefiting from policy support for real estate, with a notable increase in sales driven by the "old-for-new" replacement initiative, particularly among leading brands [1][19]. - Consumer spending is expected to show marginal recovery, with a focus on quality companies gaining market share [1][19]. Summary by Relevant Sections Paper Industry - Chenming Paper's production halts have led to a significant reduction in output, with 703,000 tons of capacity offline, representing 71.7% of total capacity, which is expected to improve industry supply-demand dynamics [1][11]. - Recent price increases for various paper products, including a rise of 300 RMB/ton for cultural paper and 200 RMB/ton for white cardboard, indicate a recovery in pricing after a prolonged downturn [1][12]. - The long-term outlook for the paper industry suggests a gradual optimization of the supply-demand structure, with recommendations for companies with integrated operations and strong management, such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [1][13]. Home Furnishing Industry - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with improved sales and construction figures in October, which is expected to positively impact the home furnishing market [1][19]. - The "old-for-new" policy is stimulating sales, particularly benefiting leading brands, as evidenced by the significant sales figures reported [1][19]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the home furnishing sector, with specific recommendations for companies like Sophia and Oppein [1][19]. Consumer Sector - There is an anticipated marginal recovery in consumer spending, with a focus on companies that can leverage supply chain advantages and diverse channel strategies to increase market share [1][19]. - Companies such as Baiya and Morning Glory are recommended for their strong growth potential and market positioning [1][19]. Export Sector - The report notes potential disruptions from tariffs, emphasizing the importance of companies with established overseas production capabilities [1][25]. - The export data shows a recovery in light industry exports, with specific categories like pet care products and artificial turf maintaining steady growth [1][30].