策略周报：跨年行情启动需哪些条件？

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the cross-year market rally often occurs due to the performance vacuum at year-end and the significant meeting windows, with the timing and magnitude of the rally varying greatly [2][3] - The conditions for initiating a cross-year rally include improvements in the fundamental economy, liquidity easing, and policy catalysts, with the strength of the rally depending on the robustness of these driving factors and the prior market environment [4][5] - Currently, attention should be focused on incremental policy developments and fundamental trends, with technology manufacturing and mid-to-high-end manufacturing sectors expected to be the mid-term market leaders [5][22] Group 2 - Historically, cross-year rallies have been observed, but the timing and magnitude differ significantly. The rally is influenced by the performance in the last quarter of the previous year, with weak performance leading to earlier rallies and strong performance resulting in later rallies [3][16] - The report highlights that macroeconomic improvements are crucial for the cross-year rally, as high-frequency macro data often guides A-share performance during the performance vacuum period [4][16] - Liquidity easing is also a direct driver of the cross-year rally, with the central bank typically increasing monetary supply to stabilize market liquidity at year-end [19][21] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring incremental policy and fundamental trends for market upgrades, suggesting that the upcoming economic work conference and political bureau meeting will provide insights into future economic policies [29][30] - The technology manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from dual support from policies and technological advancements, with significant growth anticipated in areas such as digital infrastructure and AI applications [34][35] - Mid-to-high-end manufacturing is projected to maintain a favorable outlook due to strong supply and resilient external demand, with specific attention on sectors like automotive and home appliances [36][37]