美银首席Winnie Wu：短期投资展望，这次不一样！

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious investment outlook for the short term, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors such as banking, coal, telecommunications, media, and domestic consumer services, which are expected to be more resilient to geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Core Insights - Current investor sentiment in China is heavily influenced by short-term concerns related to geopolitical tensions and expectations of government fiscal stimulus, despite doubts about the effectiveness of such measures in supporting the real economy and private sector [1][3]. - The outlook for the Chinese technology sector is mixed due to potential U.S. sanctions, with institutional investors expressing concern; however, domestic small and medium-sized tech and semiconductor companies are seeing stock price increases due to anticipated localization efforts [1][5]. - The potential for a second Trump administration poses greater challenges for China compared to the first term, affecting trade, technology, capital markets, and talent acquisition, with fears of reversing the free flow of capital, goods, and human resources [1][6]. Summary by Sections Short-term Investment Opportunities - In the next 3-6 months, large internet companies with strong fundamentals and balance sheets may present investment opportunities if market conditions lead to sell-offs and stock price declines [2][7]. - The Asian markets may show greater resilience compared to ADRs, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate further [4][7]. Geopolitical and Policy Impact - The current geopolitical climate and policy expectations are significantly affecting investor sentiment in China, with a shift towards short-term developments even among long-term investors [3]. - The Chinese government's strategy appears reactive, needing to assess U.S. policies before formulating responses, which may delay visible improvements in fundamentals until earnings reports are released next year [4]. Sector Performance - Domestic-oriented industries such as banking, coal, telecommunications, media, and domestic consumer services are recommended for short-term investments due to their strong resistance to geopolitical tensions [1][7]. - Monitoring China's policy responses and identifying beneficiaries of stimulus measures will be crucial in the coming months [2][7].