野村辜朝明：对中国资产走向最新判断，如果应对资产负债表衰退？

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the Chinese economy, highlighting the characteristics of a balance sheet recession and the need for substantial fiscal stimulus measures [2][4][10]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is exhibiting signs of a balance sheet recession, with recent stimulus measures focusing on asset ownership changes rather than direct GDP contributions [2][4]. - Overcoming the current economic challenges may take a prolonged period, potentially similar to Japan's two-decade recovery or the 5 to 10 years experienced by the US and Europe post-2008 [2][6]. - The re-inflation of the Chinese real estate market is critical but faces significant obstacles, including a declining population and the need to rebuild consumer confidence in real estate as a safe investment [2][5]. - Stimulating consumption and demand requires addressing broader economic challenges beyond the real estate sector, with current efforts yielding low loan demand from both businesses and households [2][7]. - The duration of the balance sheet recession in China may be lengthy, but public awareness of the issues may lead to a shorter recovery compared to Japan [2][8]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - The report notes that recent stimulus measures have primarily involved changing asset ownership rather than adding value to the economy, with a significant package of 4 trillion RMB aimed at completing unfinished construction projects [2][4]. - As of the latest report, approximately 2.3 trillion RMB of this package has been approved, which is expected to contribute to GDP through actual construction activities [4]. Real Estate Market - The stabilization of the real estate market is deemed beneficial, yet the process is complicated by various challenges, including a potential drop in bottom prices compared to normal conditions [5][6]. - The report emphasizes that consumer confidence in real estate must be restored for borrowing to increase, which is currently hindered by a declining population [7][8]. Fiscal Stimulus - The report suggests that effective measures to combat the recession may require fiscal stimulus equivalent to 4-5% of GDP, which would significantly increase the existing deficit [9][10]. - The central government's leverage is crucial in this context, as high private sector savings can provide funding without causing financing issues [10].