化工行业行业周报：化工品价差改善，看好结构性机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights improvements in chemical product price spreads and suggests structural investment opportunities within the sector [2][3] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decline in oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices at $72.94 and $68.00 per barrel respectively, down 2.97% and 4.55% from the previous week [2][55] - The report notes that OPEC has lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, indicating a weaker supply-demand outlook for crude oil [2][56] Summary by Sections Oil Market - As of November 29, Brent and WTI oil prices have decreased by 2.97% and 4.55% respectively, with year-to-date declines of 5.32% and 5.09% [2][55] - The U.S. refinery utilization rate increased to 90.5%, suggesting potential for further increases as winter heating oil demand rises [2][56] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.84 million barrels to 42,845 million barrels [2] Inventory Conversion - The average inventory conversion loss for crude oil is reported at 12 CNY/ton this week, with a year-to-date average loss of 26 CNY/ton [3][60] - Propane inventory conversion shows an average loss of 102 CNY/ton this week, with a year-to-date average loss of 22 CNY/ton [3][60] Price Changes - Among 170 tracked chemical products, 42 saw price increases (24.7%), while 59 experienced declines (34.7%) [3][64] - Notable price increases include hydrochloric acid and potassium chloride, with the latter rising by 6.5% due to tight supply conditions [3][64] Price Spread Changes - In the tracked 130 products, 68 price spreads increased (52.3%), indicating a positive trend in chemical product price spreads [3][74] - The PBT price spread increased by 16.8% due to falling raw material prices, while the ethylene glycol price spread rose by 6.6% as geopolitical tensions eased [3][74][75] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets with resilient earnings and high-quality new material targets, anticipating valuation recovery in the chemical sector [3][20]