东南亚消费产业研究：电商渗透率快速提升的新兴市场

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ASEAN region is the fifth largest retail market globally, with a retail scale of $648.2 billion in 2023, growing at a CAGR of 3.8% from 2015 to 2023, surpassing the global average of 3.3% [18][19] - The e-commerce retail scale in ASEAN reached $124 billion in 2023, ranking sixth globally, with a remarkable CAGR of 40% from 2015 to 2023, significantly higher than the global average of 16% [18][19] - The e-commerce penetration rate in ASEAN increased by 15 percentage points from 2018 to 2023, indicating substantial growth potential [25][29] Summary by Sections 1. Overview: Rapid Growth of E-commerce Channels - ASEAN's retail market is the fifth largest globally, with a retail scale of $648.2 billion in 2023, accounting for 4% of the global total [18] - The e-commerce retail scale in ASEAN is $124 billion, representing 3% of the global total, with a CAGR of 40% from 2015 to 2023 [18][19] - The major six countries in ASEAN account for 97% of the total retail scale, with Indonesia being the largest contributor [19][20] 2. E-commerce Competitive Factors: Supply Chain as a Core Barrier - The e-commerce scale in the major six ASEAN countries grew from $12.5 billion in 2016 to $38.4 billion in 2019, with a CAGR of 45.37% [34] - Shopee maintains the largest market share in the major six ASEAN countries, with a 32% market share in 2023 [44] - The competition in e-commerce is driven by supply chain capabilities, which are essential for increasing market share [34][44] 3. Major Platform Analysis - Shopee's total revenue in 2023 was $13.1 billion, with e-commerce accounting for 70% of this revenue [4] - Lazada's market share decreased from 19% in 2018 to 15% in 2023, despite maintaining positive order growth [4] - TikTok Shop achieved a remarkable CAGR of 203% from 2021 to 2023, reaching a business scale of $5.2 billion in the major six ASEAN countries [4][44]