摩根士丹利：前瞻经济工作会议，剖析中美迥异视角

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the Chinese stock market, emphasizing the need for attention to re-inflation processes and policy support, while favoring companies that can consistently exceed market expectations in earnings [2]. Core Insights - The projected GDP growth target for China in 2024 is around 5%, with an expected increase in the total broad deficit by approximately 2 trillion RMB, primarily allocated to infrastructure and strategic emerging industries [1][3]. - Domestic investors are relatively optimistic about China's economic outlook, while international investors remain cautious due to concerns over the effectiveness of supply-side reforms and the risk of a balance sheet recession [1][6]. - The U.S. economy is currently facing high inflation, significant fiscal deficits, and post-cycle challenges, contrasting sharply with the economic situation in 2017 [9][10]. - Future U.S.-China trade relations remain uncertain, with potential for further tariffs that could impact China's exports and economic growth, particularly in low-value consumer goods sectors [1][16]. - To combat deflation risks, China requires stronger cyclical policies alongside structural reforms to achieve economic rebalancing and sustainable development [1][20]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The anticipated GDP growth target for 2024 is set at approximately 5%, with a broad deficit expected to increase by around 2 trillion RMB, raising the GDP ratio by nearly 1.4 percentage points [3][4]. - The broad fiscal expansion is expected to allocate about two-thirds of funds to investment, particularly in infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, with limited support for consumption and social security [4][5]. Investor Sentiment - Domestic investors show optimism due to signs of improvement in supply-side reforms, while international investors express caution regarding the sustainability of these reforms and the potential for a balance sheet recession [6][7]. - There is a divergence in views on future macroeconomic policies, with domestic investors expecting limited large-scale demand-side stimulus, while international investors hope for more substantial measures [13][14]. U.S. Economic Context - The current U.S. economic landscape is characterized by high inflation and fiscal challenges, with the government's policies potentially leading to increased economic risks [9][10][11]. - The rising cost of U.S. debt is putting pressure on fiscal sustainability, prompting the government to seek adjustments that may affect its stance towards China [11][12]. Trade Relations and Tariffs - The potential for increased tariffs on Chinese goods poses a significant risk to China's export capabilities, particularly in low-margin consumer goods [16][17]. - The report anticipates that any new tariffs could significantly impact China's GDP, with projections indicating a potential drag of nearly one percentage point on GDP growth due to trade disruptions [18][19]. Recommendations for Investment - The report highlights the importance of identifying Chinese companies that can consistently outperform market expectations, suggesting that these firms may provide a buffer against broader market risks [2][31]. - The Chinese stock market's attractiveness is not solely based on low price-to-earnings ratios; rather, it requires a combination of favorable geopolitical conditions and effective domestic policies to enhance investor confidence [29][30].