MNSO(MNSO) 申万宏源·2024-12-03 02:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the market [4][13][15]. Core Insights - MINISO reported a revenue of Rmb4.52 billion for Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.3%. The gross margin reached a record high of 44.9%, up by 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][8]. - The company's domestic revenue from the mainland market was Rmb2.71 billion, growing by 8.7% year-on-year, driven by steady store expansion and improved profitability in its TOP TOY segment [4][9]. - MINISO's overseas expansion is accelerating, with a total of 2,936 overseas stores as of Q3 2024, contributing to a 55.4% year-on-year revenue increase in overseas direct operations [4][10]. - The successful launch of the Harry Potter IP products has significantly boosted sales, indicating the effectiveness of MINISO's global IP strategy [4][12]. - The report projects continued growth in net profit, estimating Rmb28.51 billion, Rmb34.05 billion, and Rmb40.01 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [4][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was Rmb4.52 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of Rmb1.14 billion and adjusted net profit of Rmb686 million, showing respective year-on-year increases of 12.4% and 6.9% [4][8]. - The gross margin improved to 44.9%, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas direct sales and better execution of the IP strategy [4][11]. Domestic Market Insights - The domestic business revenue reached Rmb2.44 billion, growing by 5.7% year-on-year, supported by the expansion of MINISO stores to 4,250 [4][9]. - TOP TOY's revenue surged by 50.4% to Rmb272 million, driven by store expansion and resilient same-store sales [4][9]. Overseas Expansion - MINISO's overseas store count increased by 183 in Q3 2024, with significant contributions from regions such as Latin America and North America [4][10]. - Overseas revenue reached Rmb1.81 billion, marking a 39.8% year-on-year growth, with direct operations accounting for 37% of total overseas revenue [4][10]. Strategic Collaborations - The collaboration with Yonghui is expected to enhance supply chain efficiency and create synergies in private-label development and IP cooperation [4][12].